Their money supply’s shrinking and yield curves have inverted. This confluence of events always precedes slumps; can this time be different? In “Dude, Where’s My Recession?” (The New York Times, 14 July) Paul Krugman noted: “almost a year has passed since the U.S. Bureau of … [Read more...] about Are Australia and the US heading for severe recessions?
“Investing” in Aussie small-caps is like gambling: the longer you play and the bigger your bet, the more you’ll underperform the house. “Small-cap stocks tend to outperform big-caps,” asserts Investopedia (“Understanding Small-Cap and Big-Cap Stocks,” 4 August 2022), “ ... … [Read more...] about The Myth of Small-Cap Outperformance
Analysis of its monthly financial statements since 2005 uncovers trends that commentaries about its annual budget downplay or overlook. For more than 20 years, it’s been a basis of Leithner & Company’s operations: as a conservative-contrarian value investor, we think for … [Read more...] about How Canberra’s finances have worsened – and why it matters
Leading indicators, weekly earnings and hours worked, GDI and productivity are all falling. That’s bad for Aussie as well as U.S. equities. In Should we be in a recession already? (2 June), Roger Montgomery wrote: “given the slumping credit demand and tightening lending … [Read more...] about Why America’s now in recession – and what it means for Australia
Probably not – but high and rising debt will boost CPI and interest rates, and stifle GDP growth and investors’ returns. In America’s real debt crisis (15 May), I wrote: “The choice is stark: Americans must either undertake radical budget reform and (public) debt deleveraging, … [Read more...] about Is Australia Risking a Debt Crisis?