Archives for September 2025

Pre-tax margins and ROEs haven’t risen and leverage hasn’t fallen. Exaggerated and misleading assertions “support” today’s high valuations. It’s a symptom of a bull market: speculators devise novel rationales which, they contend, justify stocks’ high prices. Bulls sometimes concede that by previous standards today’s valuations are excessive. But, they hasten to add, it’s … [Read more...] about Stop calling companies better: they’re merely dearer

Over very long intervals, short-term random fluctuations (“noise”) cancel one another – and ever clearer and steadier signals emerge. In order to help manage risks, form fiscal and monetary policies and anticipate (and thereby profit from) changes of economic activity, some producers, many governments and central banks – and most speculators – attempt to predict short-term … [Read more...] about Forget next year’s commodity prices: focus on 2075’s