In my previous wire (How we’ve prepared for the next bust, 28 November), I noted that recessions can have salutary effects: they usually damage and sometimes destroy the “conventional wisdom” which inflates the boom and bull market – and later collapses into bust and bear market. … [Read more...] about The factual case for fossil fuels
My two most recent wires (Recessions usually crush shares – but investors can always reduce their ravages, 31 October and How low could stocks go in 2023? 14 November) established six key conclusions: Investors can’t accurately predict the timing, still less the duration or … [Read more...] about How we’ve prepared for the next bust
Shane Oliver believes that during the year to come Australia will likely avoid a recession (see, for example, Seven reasons why Australia should avoid a recession, 9 November). But it’s quite possible that it won’t: on 28 October in Shane Oliver’s guide to riding out a “year to … [Read more...] about How Low Could Stocks Go in 2023?
According to Ashley Owen (“Recessions Are Usually Good for Sharemarkets,” Firstlinks, 12 October), “history shows that economic contractions have been mostly good for share prices.” Specifically, “the Australian share market has actually increased during the majority of economic … [Read more...] about Recessions usually crush shares – but investors can always reduce their ravages
In Critics of the 60/40 portfolio have their blinkers on (27 September), David Thornton notes that “the age-old 60/40 portfolio,” comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, “has copped a growing chorus of criticism lately.” On 15 October 2021, for example, Goldman Sachs asked: “is … [Read more...] about How the 60/40 portfolio outperforms