By nature they’re sceptics, and at key junctures become contrarians. I show why they should disbelieve the orthodoxy – and why it matters. The drumbeat has long been incessant, and lately it’s become deafening. For years, “the consensus” has decreed that “the science is … [Read more...] about Why value investors should doubt “climate science”
We’ve outperformed over the long term by being conservatively contrarian during booms and aggressively contrarian during busts. Investors must never forget: the economic cycle includes contraction as well as expansion. Downturns usually don’t last nearly as long as upswings, … [Read more...] about How we prepare for – and profit from – recessions
Their money supply’s shrinking and yield curves have inverted. This confluence of events always precedes slumps; can this time be different? In “Dude, Where’s My Recession?” (The New York Times, 14 July) Paul Krugman noted: “almost a year has passed since the U.S. Bureau of … [Read more...] about Are Australia and the US heading for severe recessions?
“Investing” in Aussie small-caps is like gambling: the longer you play and the bigger your bet, the more you’ll underperform the house. “Small-cap stocks tend to outperform big-caps,” asserts Investopedia (“Understanding Small-Cap and Big-Cap Stocks,” 4 August 2022), “ ... … [Read more...] about The Myth of Small-Cap Outperformance
Analysis of its monthly financial statements since 2005 uncovers trends that commentaries about its annual budget downplay or overlook. For more than 20 years, it’s been a basis of Leithner & Company’s operations: as a conservative-contrarian value investor, we think for … [Read more...] about How Canberra’s finances have worsened – and why it matters