John Maynard Keynes (the First Baron Keynes of Tilton, 1883-1946) is usually remembered as the author of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) and father of “Keynesian economics.” He was probably the most famous and influential economist of the past century, and (based upon the damage they wreaked in the 1960s-1970s and since the GFC) the policies that he … [Read more...] about Keynes as investor-speculator
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Australia’s dividend recession
In Five crucial facts the mainstream has ignored (23 April), I demonstrated that “Australian equities have entered an earnings depression – and the market has mispriced it … egregiously.” Earnings finance dividends; so what, in the midst of Australia's bogus boom (19 May), are this depression’s implications for payouts? In this article I substantiate five more crucial facts. … [Read more...] about Australia’s dividend recession
Australia’s bogus boom
The "recovery" of Australia’s economy from last year’s plunge into recession is much more apparent than real. Before the pandemic, deep-rooted and growing impediments hobbled its growth. Some have existed for decades, others result from the poor policy during and since the GFC. And beginning in March of last year, politicians’ abandonment of even the pretence of principle has … [Read more...] about Australia’s bogus boom
Australia’s Earnings Depression
If you’ve been following the news – which, two of my recent posts concluded, is a mistake! – for the past six months or more, you’ll be forgiven for thinking that the earnings of ASX-listed firms are recovering and therefore that the market’s remarkable gains since March 2020 are “sustainable.” The truth is diametrically different. Alan Kohler wrote in The Australian on 7 April … [Read more...] about Australia’s Earnings Depression
Investors beware: “News” impairs your mental and physical wellbeing
In my previous wire, I showed that overconsumption of news misinforms investors and wastes their time. But that’s not all: in this article, I cite evidence that overconsumption – particularly of news’ online and broadcast variants – hinders thinking. It doesn’t just cause your investment returns to suffer: even worse, it also impairs your mental and physical health. Like the … [Read more...] about Investors beware: “News” impairs your mental and physical wellbeing
Why investors should ignore most “news”
Shareholders and others sometimes ask: “where do you get the information you need to invest?” In response, I say something like: “every business day I scan headlines in major financial publications in Australia, Britain, Europe and North America. As a rule, I ignore opinion pieces and prognostications about markets and the economy. But I skim all articles about companies, … [Read more...] about Why investors should ignore most “news”
Why does your manager charge fees and pay salaries and bonuses?
In my previous wire, I highlighted a vital reality that hardly anybody has noticed (or, perhaps, wants to mention): remarkably few financial advisers, analysts, brokers, journalists, strategists and the like are financially independent. Few own sufficient investments to generate the stream of dividends, payments of interest or other income sources to finance their living … [Read more...] about Why does your manager charge fees and pay salaries and bonuses?
Are you a customer, client or partner?
It’s vitally important, yet hardly anybody has noticed it: remarkably few financial advisers, analysts, brokers, journalists, strategists and the like are financially independent. Few, in other words, own enough assets to generate a stream of income that finances their living expenses. Instead, they rely as heavily as the average adult does – that is, almost completely – upon … [Read more...] about Are you a customer, client or partner?
Investors, beware: It’s THAT time of year again!
How important are rankings of managed funds’ results during the past 12 months? How should investors interpret them? In a key sense, rankings ARE important – but NOT in the way the mainstream assumes. At this time of year, and again at mid-year, when they come thick and fast, as an investor you should heed them in one respect only: use them to consider culling funds that have … [Read more...] about Investors, beware: It’s THAT time of year again!
Speculators are playing with fire; investors, don’t get burnt!
Earlier this month, a columnist at another Australian website encapsulated the exuberance that’s currently gripping stocks – and the incredulity that somebody mightn’t share it: “It’s difficult to be anything other than bullish on the prospects for equity markets next year. I know I am. I mean, what exactly is the bear case? Is there even one?” This article summarises mine. For … [Read more...] about Speculators are playing with fire; investors, don’t get burnt!