Not even AI can win it – just as hardly anybody can profitably “tip” football or beat casinos. Random fluctuation fools almost everybody. Overview Marcus Padley is surely Australia’s most prominent advocate of market timing. He’s explicitly, repeatedly and vociferously claimed not merely that he can successfully “time” the stock market: with his help, you can, too! “If … [Read more...] about Why “timing” the market is a “loser’s game
Which stocks best navigate economic and political risks?
Value stocks best mitigate the downside; they also capture the upside. “Growth” stocks, in contrast, cope worst and suffer most. Overview On 11 July, The Wall Street Journal’s Senior Markets Columnist, James Mackintosh, asked: “how to invest when the global crises never stop?” Setting aside the irony (major stock indexes in Australia and the U.S. have recently scaled … [Read more...] about Which stocks best navigate economic and political risks?
BHP’s greatly overvalued because copper’s been hugely overhyped
It’s an excellent company whose future is bright. Unfortunately, bulls are massively exaggerating – and thus considerably overvaluing – it. BHP Group (hereafter “BHP”) is the world’s largest (by market capitalisation) mining company; by the same metric, it’s also Australia’s biggest corporation. It’s hardly certain, but it’s probably not controversial: its outlook is … [Read more...] about BHP’s greatly overvalued because copper’s been hugely overhyped
High valuations – not rising bond yields – threaten American stocks
Rising yields are usually unimportant. In sharp contrast, valuations are always crucial. Australian and value stocks abate this major risk. In The Market is obsessed with the wrong things (25 March), Chris Conway wrote: “markets obsess over war and oil, but interest rates drive outcomes. Understand (central banks’) policy, and you understand the path of markets.” That, he … [Read more...] about High valuations – not rising bond yields – threaten American stocks
Why “value” ETFs underperform – and most ETFs are poison
I’ve previously shown why value stocks excel; I now show why value ETFs don’t – and also why factor, sector and thematic ETFs are toxic. Over the past few months, I’ve demonstrated that value stocks greatly outperform “momentum” stocks (for details, see Why value investing crushes momentum speculation, 9 February); value also thrashes “growth” (Want to shrink your … [Read more...] about Why “value” ETFs underperform – and most ETFs are poison
Why Santos and Woodside are among our biggest holdings
Over the past decade they’ve become globally significant E&Ps. Their costs have fallen and productivity’s risen – and match ExxonMobil’s. In Forget Next Year’s Commodity Prices: Focus on 2075’s (1 September 2025), I demonstrated that nobody can reliably predict commodity prices over the next year – yet cautious analysis based upon sensible assumptions can plausibly infer … [Read more...] about Why Santos and Woodside are among our biggest holdings
Why value investing usually outperforms
I’ve shown that momentum and growth generally fail, and since 1990 small caps have disappointed. I now explain why value typically succeeds. Over the past couple of months, analysing monthly returns in the U.S. since January 1926, I’ve demonstrated that value stocks greatly outperform “momentum” stocks (for details, see Why value investing crushes momentum speculation, … [Read more...] about Why value investing usually outperforms
Why intelligent investors avoid small caps
Conventionally defined and considering their greater risks, they outperform “growth” stocks – but not mid-caps, large caps or value stocks. Do the stocks of companies whose market capitalisations are relatively modest (“small caps”) outperform “large caps”? During the 1980s and 1990s, finance academics’ conventional – indeed, foundational – wisdom was unequivocal: they … [Read more...] about Why intelligent investors avoid small caps
Want to shrink your returns? Buy “growth” stocks!
For a century, value has virtually always beaten growth. And despite lagging over the past decade, its prospects again exceed growth’s. In Stocks for the Long Run (6th ed., McGraw-Hill, 2023), Jeremy Siegel noted a crucial fact: “earnings growth is not the primary consideration for better long-run returns” (for details, see Everything the mainstream says about earnings is … [Read more...] about Want to shrink your returns? Buy “growth” stocks!
Why we’ve never held tech – and have long owned energy
Over periods up to 10 years, tech doesn’t reliably outperform coal, gas and oil – and over longer terms tech usually underperforms energy. According to Jeremy Siegel (Stocks for the Long Run, 6th ed., McGraw-Hill, 2023), if you want to outperform over the short term – that is, if you’re a speculator rather than an investor – you have two options: either (1) buy the stocks of … [Read more...] about Why we’ve never held tech – and have long owned energy